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  • Originally posted by LARPHawk View Post
    Limits on those bets are extremely low, which keeps them from getting burned for much. Especially when, as the story covers, it’s generally pretty obvious when the info has leaked.

    A number of tennis matches also have a winner known in advance, which is a much bigger hurdle, and the books still manage that just fine.
    Now I'm curious what the odds run and how they handicap them. For normal Jeopardy games, I imagine the returning champ has the best odds most but not all of the time, but what about the other two contestants? Do the handicappers know the same info provided to viewers during the course of the show ahead of time (ethnicity, occupation, rough idea of age, etc.)?

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    • I don’t think anyone posts lines for day to day Jeopardy episodes. You’d only get them for a big event like this. I’d be surprised if the procedure isn’t for an oddsmaker to make their best guess (as someone in a similar field making guesses like this where there’s almost no actual data can be pretty fun). Then you just post the line with a $50 limit and let the bettors tell you where it should be.

      To your question, hypothetically I think the returning champ would nearly always be the favorite but any exception would be interesting (e.g. sometimes a distant third place contestant can sneak out a win in Final Jeopardy if the top 2 are close). Even a bad contestant who has a game under their belt might be a good bet. The lights are bright and the buzzer is tricky. This is something a bettor with some data chops could check pretty easily.

      I think the tv listings give names and cities for upcoming contestants so you might be able to research their background. I’d probably lean towards betting on people who don’t seem very camera friendly. There’s a reason they’re on the show. I’d also want to see stats for gender.

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      • PS - there’s something in Jeopardy called the Coryat score which is basically your score ignoring all wagering (daily doubles and final jeopardy). This would be a really good baseline stat to use as it smooths out a lot of variance. I think the best model if you had bigger sample sizes would use Coryat score and # of correct answers per game.

        You could also create a buzzer score by looking at successful buzzins on questions you assume multiple people tried to answer. To do that you could either just look at something like all the $200-$400 questions which are “easy”, or you could manually review tape for when multiple people tried to buzz in. For a GOAT contest I’d probably take the guy with the best buzzer score over the guy with the best Coryats.

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        • Originally posted by LARPHawk View Post
          I don’t think anyone posts lines for day to day Jeopardy episodes. You’d only get them for a big event like this. I’d be surprised if the procedure isn’t for an oddsmaker to make their best guess (as someone in a similar field making guesses like this where there’s almost no actual data can be pretty fun). Then you just post the line with a $50 limit and let the bettors tell you where it should be.

          To your question, hypothetically I think the returning champ would nearly always be the favorite but any exception would be interesting (e.g. sometimes a distant third place contestant can sneak out a win in Final Jeopardy if the top 2 are close). Even a bad contestant who has a game under their belt might be a good bet. The lights are bright and the buzzer is tricky. This is something a bettor with some data chops could check pretty easily.

          I think the tv listings give names and cities for upcoming contestants so you might be able to research their background. I’d probably lean towards betting on people who don’t seem very camera friendly. There’s a reason they’re on the show. I’d also want to see stats for gender.
          Yeah, and I'm sure there is an online community of Jeopardy heads who track that kind of stuff. Holzhauer in particular was very smart in terms of knowing the trivia, but his run was due in large part to going through the higher-dollar questions first and working his way down. This gave him more money (on average) to wager on Daily Doubles, and he usually went big. When executed correctly, he'd have so much money going into final that no one could catch him.

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          • Been watching The Pharmacist on Netflix. Amazing documentary on the Opioid epidemic that I highly recommend.

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            • Originally posted by beakumhawks View Post
              Been watching The Pharmacist on Netflix. Amazing documentary on the Opioid epidemic that I highly recommend.
              I'll give the opioid epidemic a shot, at your recommendation.


              (Or is that the documentary that you are recommending?)

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              • Curb has been straight killing it this season.

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